In March, due to the continuous four month increase in demand for silicon materials and the positive impact of material demand, although the price of silicon materials did not continue to rise, the overall price range was able to remain stable.

The recent market characteristics are reflected in the demand for materials with relatively lower prices that were previously difficult to accept by N-type crystal pulling production. Due to their slightly improved price attractiveness and quality, they are increasingly being accepted and used in the crystal pulling process. Therefore, the corresponding requirements and acceptance ability of crystal pulling production materials are still in the adjustment and adaptation period. Under the current price level and profit demand, there is flexibility in the acceptance of different types of silicon material categories.

In terms of inventory, the overall inventory accumulation scale has increased compared to the previous quarter, but both the quantity and magnitude are within an acceptable range. The abnormal inventory accumulation in the silicon material sector is expected to gradually become apparent in the second quarter.

In March, various companies maintained a high-end production schedule for silicon wafers, with a monthly output of 69 GW, an increase of 19% compared to the previous month. In the N-type sector, it is estimated that the production of N-type silicon wafers will reach 52-53 GW in March, with an N-type penetration rate of about 76%. Due to the continuous accumulation of silicon wafer inventory, the current inventory has reached over 2.5 billion pieces, and the price of N-type silicon wafers has also fallen this week.

This week, the trend of N/P silicon wafer transaction prices has diverged, with M10 and G12 sizes of P silicon wafers maintaining transaction prices at RMB 2.05 and RMB 2.75-2.8 per wafer. The price of N-type met last week's expectations and showed a downward trend. The transaction prices of M10 and G12 sizes fell around RMB 1.95-1.98 and RMB 3.05-3.08 per piece, with a decline of 1-3%.

Recently, manufacturers have gradually shifted their production focus from large chamfers to small chamfer production. The inventory of silicon wafers is mostly in large chamfer specifications, and the 191.6 and 210R series are also gradually being converted. However, due to the relatively pessimistic current production situation, many manufacturers are still watching and most of them focus on producing micro rectangles without the need for additional equipment.

The March battery end production plan was affected by the rebound in terminal demand, resulting in a significant increase in output to around 62 GW, a 32% month on month increase.

In the N-type sector, the expected output for March is around 39-41 GW, with a slight increase in penetration rate to 65%.

This week, the transaction price of battery cells remained stable, with the P-type M10 size falling between 0.38-0.40 RMB per watt; The transaction price of G12 size also maintains a price level of 0.37-0.39 RMB per watt.

In terms of N-type solar cells, the price of TOPCon (M10) solar cells remains stable, with an average price of around 0.46-0.47 yuan per watt. The price of N-type ultra efficient solar cells produced by manufacturers can also reach the transaction level of 0.48-0.49 yuan per watt. The price difference between TOPCon and PERC solar cells remains between 0.08-0.09 yuan per watt. The high-efficiency part of HJT (G12) battery cells is priced at 0.6-0.7 RMB per watt.

Recently, battery cell manufacturers have attempted to increase battery prices, with a price of 0.4 yuan per watt for 182 size P-type batteries; The price range for N-type has also been raised to 0.48-0.49 RMB per watt, but it has not yet become the mainstream transaction price.

Compared to last week's statistics, manufacturers in March predicted a rebound in demand from March to April and prepared ahead of schedule. The volume of production increased by about 55 GW in March, a significant increase of 50% compared to February. The increase in observation mainly comes from the upward adjustment of production scheduling by top manufacturers. In the second quarter, the number of orders received by manufacturers also improved significantly. The demand for components was eased and recovered due to the pull of large domestic ground power stations, as well as the impact of European demand replenishment. The average order rate of first-line manufacturers in the second quarter reached 60-80%.

Recently, manufacturers are still considering a price increase. PERC products are expected to increase their prices by 2-4 cents per watt, while TOPCon products are also expected to increase by 1-2 cents per watt. However, the acceptance rate of end-users is still unclear, and prices will remain stable this week. At present, the overall forecast price for March remains stable based on last week's view, with a slight increase in the low price range.

Although the internal guidance prices of first tier manufacturers have increased in the second quarter, the current demand recovery speed is not fast, and the increase in midstream silicon wafer inventory may add to the terminal's wait-and-see attitude, especially for some new orders with prices at medium to low levels. Component manufacturers are still trying to negotiate with terminals.